A survey & a visual to gauge the probability of a US recession, a Bank of America report to show how millennials & GenZ's are picking up gig work once again, 2 consumer spending trends & more...
We are in a recession. The metrics have been altered over the years in order to hide the facts. Unemployment calculations have dubious metrics to hide true unemployment. The powers that be don't want us to know the truth because when we know we are in or approaching a recession, human behavior adapts accordingly. When families cut spending, economies are effected. John Williams has an excellent site where he compares the economic stats calculated today with how the stats were calculated prior to the changes. shadowstats.com
I also recommend the book I was required to read while at University studying Business. How To Lie With Statistics.
Thanks for your insights and the book recommendation. Would definitely agree with you regarding the calculation methods of economic indicators that often doesn't paint the correct picture.
Unemployment Rates are actually just based off on surveys & claim filings. I think market participants forget this fact as they try to read the tea leaves - that U3 rates are not actual data but survey data
My personal opinion is the recession started 2 weeks ago. I am involved in an engineering business that supplies equipment to large companies mainly. Typically we feel economic changes prior to most and business activity has slowed considerably since the beginning of the month.
That is an excellent insights. A lot of the economic indicators that we read are lagging, so it's great to hear the pulse from people who are actually in the field. What kind of an engineering business are you in? Would love to hear more.
What's happening currently with Ethereum is that devs are shying away from the eco system due to those gas fees you were talking about. They are too expensive for 'new comers' and too expensive for devs building in a bear market. There are more attractive L1's out there (the biggest and cheapest is XRP, but this is not know amongst users). Ethereum is coming to a pivotal point and if devs choose to leave, I would imagine ETH slips from second place.
Great insight, I would fully agree with you that ETH is at a pivotal point now. What do you think is the likely candidate to take its place? Also, I need to check out XRP, thanks for bringing it to my attention.
Not particularly because we don’t concentrate on any particular industry and deal with many smaller companies too in a wide range of industries including food processing, chemicals, petrochemicals, grains, paint, cement and biomass. The slowdowns in the past and currently being experienced are across the board. Volume of phone calls, email requests and orders have all seen the same slowdown this month.
While a lot of hype surrounding crypto and web3 have faded since last year, the case for bitcoin remains and you can see as the price of bitcoin is holding steady and rising as bonds are selling off. Ethereum is more of an application based crypto network, so I am definitely curious to see the innovation in L1 and L2 networks and the subsequent applications that are built. Do you invest in bitcoin , or any other forms of crypto?
I think both Ethereum and Bitcoin are too early. They’ll have the greatest impact in the future. Right now, especially Ethereum, is a solution in search of a problem. I do have a significant portion of my portfolio in BTC and ETH though — especially BTC.
Well said as always! BoA knows a recession is looming because they know how their recieveables amongst other things are brewing like mortgages and current default buckets. I will say Web3 is doomed if ETH can't keep it up ( which is the point of those heavily invested in the internet of things). Great analysis as always!!
Thanks Jessica. I am fully with you on your take on web3 if ETH can't keep up. As for the investment banks that pulling back their recession guidance, I am not sure anymore what to think.
Goldman is always shady and knows people will sell off prematurely before they hit projections especially after no doubt getting heat for consumer credit access. That's just me though. Shortselling without making a real ruckus. I would if I had the money.
I think I’ve been in a state of recession since 911! Lol! Life back in the 90s. 🥰 I miss those days! Thank you for continuing to share your insight into the financial world. I always find your reads fascinating!
Thanks Charlotte for such kind words. True, life in the 90s was something special, even though I was only a little child then. Have to admit, times, especially after the pandemic, feel stranger.
Mechanical Engineering. We manufacture valves that handle powders and pellets so some of our clients are P&G, Exxon, Sherwin Williams, General Mills etc...
Business was very strong through the pandemic and increased over 20% YOY as much of the world suffered with supply chain issues but fortunately we had no sourcing from Asia so we benefited where some competitors had issues with production.
We are in a recession. The metrics have been altered over the years in order to hide the facts. Unemployment calculations have dubious metrics to hide true unemployment. The powers that be don't want us to know the truth because when we know we are in or approaching a recession, human behavior adapts accordingly. When families cut spending, economies are effected. John Williams has an excellent site where he compares the economic stats calculated today with how the stats were calculated prior to the changes. shadowstats.com
I also recommend the book I was required to read while at University studying Business. How To Lie With Statistics.
Thanks for your insights and the book recommendation. Would definitely agree with you regarding the calculation methods of economic indicators that often doesn't paint the correct picture.
Unemployment Rates are actually just based off on surveys & claim filings. I think market participants forget this fact as they try to read the tea leaves - that U3 rates are not actual data but survey data
Based on claim filings also.
Good catch :)
I had to read it again just now. Nice edit. :)
And they have the guess they add called the birth/death model. It's a bunch of nonsense really. If an employee works two jobs he is counted twice.
Perhaps a better stat to follow is the labor participation rate. But the media doesn't tout that much.
My personal opinion is the recession started 2 weeks ago. I am involved in an engineering business that supplies equipment to large companies mainly. Typically we feel economic changes prior to most and business activity has slowed considerably since the beginning of the month.
That is an excellent insights. A lot of the economic indicators that we read are lagging, so it's great to hear the pulse from people who are actually in the field. What kind of an engineering business are you in? Would love to hear more.
What's happening currently with Ethereum is that devs are shying away from the eco system due to those gas fees you were talking about. They are too expensive for 'new comers' and too expensive for devs building in a bear market. There are more attractive L1's out there (the biggest and cheapest is XRP, but this is not know amongst users). Ethereum is coming to a pivotal point and if devs choose to leave, I would imagine ETH slips from second place.
Great insight, I would fully agree with you that ETH is at a pivotal point now. What do you think is the likely candidate to take its place? Also, I need to check out XRP, thanks for bringing it to my attention.
From what I am seeing both XRP and Solana are being considered
👍🏽
Not particularly because we don’t concentrate on any particular industry and deal with many smaller companies too in a wide range of industries including food processing, chemicals, petrochemicals, grains, paint, cement and biomass. The slowdowns in the past and currently being experienced are across the board. Volume of phone calls, email requests and orders have all seen the same slowdown this month.
Highly powerful insights Liam! Much appreciated.
Thank you for your insights, really appreciate it.
I guess Ethereum and cryptocurrency in general is a cyclic market. When it starts surging again, people will come back.
While a lot of hype surrounding crypto and web3 have faded since last year, the case for bitcoin remains and you can see as the price of bitcoin is holding steady and rising as bonds are selling off. Ethereum is more of an application based crypto network, so I am definitely curious to see the innovation in L1 and L2 networks and the subsequent applications that are built. Do you invest in bitcoin , or any other forms of crypto?
I think both Ethereum and Bitcoin are too early. They’ll have the greatest impact in the future. Right now, especially Ethereum, is a solution in search of a problem. I do have a significant portion of my portfolio in BTC and ETH though — especially BTC.
I think the case for BTC is validating fast, especially now, with all the wreckage happening in the US Treasury market. ETH, I am not sure.
Well said as always! BoA knows a recession is looming because they know how their recieveables amongst other things are brewing like mortgages and current default buckets. I will say Web3 is doomed if ETH can't keep it up ( which is the point of those heavily invested in the internet of things). Great analysis as always!!
Thanks Jessica. I am fully with you on your take on web3 if ETH can't keep up. As for the investment banks that pulling back their recession guidance, I am not sure anymore what to think.
Goldman is always shady and knows people will sell off prematurely before they hit projections especially after no doubt getting heat for consumer credit access. That's just me though. Shortselling without making a real ruckus. I would if I had the money.
We are heading for some bad things in the near future
I think I’ve been in a state of recession since 911! Lol! Life back in the 90s. 🥰 I miss those days! Thank you for continuing to share your insight into the financial world. I always find your reads fascinating!
Thanks Charlotte for such kind words. True, life in the 90s was something special, even though I was only a little child then. Have to admit, times, especially after the pandemic, feel stranger.
Great read, Amrita.
Thanks, I am glad you enjoyed it!!
Mechanical Engineering. We manufacture valves that handle powders and pellets so some of our clients are P&G, Exxon, Sherwin Williams, General Mills etc...
Business was very strong through the pandemic and increased over 20% YOY as much of the world suffered with supply chain issues but fortunately we had no sourcing from Asia so we benefited where some competitors had issues with production.
Did a similar drop in order volumes across these large companies in previous cycles all lead to weakness or recessions in the US, in your experience?