Plus, Netflix crushed earnings estimates, the restaurant industry is showing signs of hope. And, as the reign of boomers in the housing market comes to an end, GenZ's may be there to steal the crown.
of course bailed-out banker bastids will be upbeat about the economy because whenever it tanks, they get bailed out again . . . and again . . . and again
I think a lot of the pessimism is driven by the personal income falling and consumer debt. Since the third quarter of 2022, GDI fell from 21,981 to 21,949 and the entire economy is fueled by debt.
Consumer credit hit a record $5 trillion with credit card interest rates rising and the GOP spending bill is up to $1.66 trillion and that does not include Ukraine or Israel.
All valid points and fully agree, I believe the tailwinds such as excess consumer savings, a robust labor market that are starting to fade in 2024. Plus, the whole area about corporate debt refinancing is still a blackhole of sorts, while we know bigger corporations are in good shape, smaller and private companies have continued to see their margins over 2023.
Market breadth is still rough imo. Tech layoffs are ramping back up again. 25.5k layoffs from the companies followed by layoffs.fyi puts Q1 ahead of Q4-23 and we aren’t even out of January yet 😬
Fully agree with you on market breadth, the latest rally to new highs we have seen is very concentrated on tech. i do think that the momentum will take it up couple/few hundred more points, but it's a matter of time when the base effects start fading.
I will be surprised if earnings growth is 11% or more. I will be extremely surprised. Having said that, I also think that is expected so clearly not rattling a market that is now looking at what 2025 promises with the wind behind "our backs" as yields start to fall while full employment does not start to buckle
Great Amrita. In the UK there is some kind of tax advantage in taking over a resto from someone else in a certain period, hence a lot of churn…so highly artificial market. would be interesting in seeing expansion of individual restos vs chains. I think the whole resto scene is going the way of everything else ie. couture vs slop. eg eat at an atelier for £££ or else something the robot burps out… hospitality feels very 2005.
Thanks Anna for sharing the tax advantage side of things when someone takes over a previous restaurant, I had no idea.
And I will fully agree with how food at restaurants are getting homogenous. True, there are quite a few spots that have opened up over the last few years in Vancouver, but they all sell the same exact things...burgers, pizzas, etc. that could easily be replicated and automated. What you brought up is actually quite insightful, now that I get to think about it, there is rapid pace of automation happening in the restaurant space, starting from food prep to packaging and delivery and it will only get deeper in the coming years.
As for me personally, I feel like as restaurant food is becoming more and more homogenous, I am far less incentivized to eat out nowadays than before. Wonder if the fatigue will spread across broader public over the coming years.
Lol, my thoughts exactly. Though their overly optimistic predictions have been coming true over the last year and even with this GDP report. I think the liquidity crunch that we may face once RRP's drain out and the Fed pausing their BFTP program is underestimated at the moment.
Thanks for sharing the link, it is a paid post, so I would not be able to read it in full either. While I am not an expert on Chinese economy, I believe that while air around pessimism is built around the uncertainties/risks that pertains to the nature of politics in China. Plus, a lot of the tailwinds around population growth are vanishing, which brings the question of much more muted growth in their economy than previously expected. Although, over the last weeks, there have been announcements regarding stimulus programs and execs buying company shares to reinstill life in the market, there are still a lot of unknowns in my opinion. Once again, I am not an expert in China, and probably need to do deeper research to have a well-formulated response.
Netflix is such an interesting case study in how a business pivots investors' attention away from real profits to the mirage of "free cash flow". But then Wall Street does not care as long as the share price keeps climbing higher. LOL.
They got a boost / reprieve from the writers and actors strikes which saved them $billions on content spend in 2023. 2024, they will get back to spending upto $17B on content. It will be interesting to see how this impacts their income statement and balance sheet.
of course bailed-out banker bastids will be upbeat about the economy because whenever it tanks, they get bailed out again . . . and again . . . and again
I don’t understand how one cannot be bullish given all the data points. It honestly baffles me.
I think a lot of the pessimism is driven by the personal income falling and consumer debt. Since the third quarter of 2022, GDI fell from 21,981 to 21,949 and the entire economy is fueled by debt.
Consumer credit hit a record $5 trillion with credit card interest rates rising and the GOP spending bill is up to $1.66 trillion and that does not include Ukraine or Israel.
All valid points and fully agree, I believe the tailwinds such as excess consumer savings, a robust labor market that are starting to fade in 2024. Plus, the whole area about corporate debt refinancing is still a blackhole of sorts, while we know bigger corporations are in good shape, smaller and private companies have continued to see their margins over 2023.
Market breadth is still rough imo. Tech layoffs are ramping back up again. 25.5k layoffs from the companies followed by layoffs.fyi puts Q1 ahead of Q4-23 and we aren’t even out of January yet 😬
Fully agree with you on market breadth, the latest rally to new highs we have seen is very concentrated on tech. i do think that the momentum will take it up couple/few hundred more points, but it's a matter of time when the base effects start fading.
The data is bullish no doubt, but I think the market is fully priced in the upside too, with earnings expected to grow around 11% in 2024.
I will be surprised if earnings growth is 11% or more. I will be extremely surprised. Having said that, I also think that is expected so clearly not rattling a market that is now looking at what 2025 promises with the wind behind "our backs" as yields start to fall while full employment does not start to buckle
Great Amrita. In the UK there is some kind of tax advantage in taking over a resto from someone else in a certain period, hence a lot of churn…so highly artificial market. would be interesting in seeing expansion of individual restos vs chains. I think the whole resto scene is going the way of everything else ie. couture vs slop. eg eat at an atelier for £££ or else something the robot burps out… hospitality feels very 2005.
Thanks Anna for sharing the tax advantage side of things when someone takes over a previous restaurant, I had no idea.
And I will fully agree with how food at restaurants are getting homogenous. True, there are quite a few spots that have opened up over the last few years in Vancouver, but they all sell the same exact things...burgers, pizzas, etc. that could easily be replicated and automated. What you brought up is actually quite insightful, now that I get to think about it, there is rapid pace of automation happening in the restaurant space, starting from food prep to packaging and delivery and it will only get deeper in the coming years.
As for me personally, I feel like as restaurant food is becoming more and more homogenous, I am far less incentivized to eat out nowadays than before. Wonder if the fatigue will spread across broader public over the coming years.
Whatever GS says, do the opposite. Just like Cramer.
Lol, my thoughts exactly. Though their overly optimistic predictions have been coming true over the last year and even with this GDP report. I think the liquidity crunch that we may face once RRP's drain out and the Fed pausing their BFTP program is underestimated at the moment.
Amrita, can you give an opinion on the chinese situation? In the following article that I can't read in full, I think the author suggest a possible reversal in the stock market. https://www.thelastbearstanding.com/p/the-tale-of-two-chinas?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=416240&post_id=141044913&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1f288a&utm_medium=email
Thanks for sharing the link, it is a paid post, so I would not be able to read it in full either. While I am not an expert on Chinese economy, I believe that while air around pessimism is built around the uncertainties/risks that pertains to the nature of politics in China. Plus, a lot of the tailwinds around population growth are vanishing, which brings the question of much more muted growth in their economy than previously expected. Although, over the last weeks, there have been announcements regarding stimulus programs and execs buying company shares to reinstill life in the market, there are still a lot of unknowns in my opinion. Once again, I am not an expert in China, and probably need to do deeper research to have a well-formulated response.
Thank you very much for your answer.
I agree that there is still too much "mist" to see clearly where China is headed
Thank you Amrita.
For more in-depth labor market analysis you can visit my newest article: https://open.substack.com/pub/arkominaresearch/p/is-labor-market-really-that-strong?r=1r1n6n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
I wonder how much of Netflix’s subscription growth / retention is due to their recent crackdown on sharing.
Netflix is such an interesting case study in how a business pivots investors' attention away from real profits to the mirage of "free cash flow". But then Wall Street does not care as long as the share price keeps climbing higher. LOL.
They got a boost / reprieve from the writers and actors strikes which saved them $billions on content spend in 2023. 2024, they will get back to spending upto $17B on content. It will be interesting to see how this impacts their income statement and balance sheet.
Cheers!
Thanks J.R. You too. Hope you enjoyed the post.