Friday5: Is the US stock market bottoming? Amazon brings on Humanoid bots, Halloween candy is 7.5% more expensive & more...
A chart suggests the US stock market may be bottoming, an inflation story on why Halloween candy is 7.5% more expensive in 2023, a study finds GenZs & millennials want to retire rich & more...
At a Glance
📈 Did you know that the stock market typically bottoms towards the end of October before staging a strong year-end rally? Are you in the bull or bear camp?
🎃 Halloween candy is going to be pricier this year as cocoa and sugar prices reach new highs. Are you still splurging or cutting back?
🤖 The time of the Humanoid Robot has arrived. Thanks to Amazon, as it tests out 2 new technologies to spearhead warehouse automation.
🛬 Did you know visitors from only 5 countries make up for 50% of all international visitors that come to the US? And India is among the top 3.
🤑 Young Americans are setting lofty retirement goals and they are confident that they will reach them. Over 33% of GenZs and millennials says that they need over $1M saved up to retire comfortably. Out of that, 62% of millennials and 58% of GenZers are optimistic about reaching their retirement savings goals.
📈 Did you know that the stock market typically bottoms towards the end of October before staging a strong year-end rally?
The chart below is from Ned Davis Research, which highlights the stock market’s seasonality pattern towards the end of the year. The chart looks at the median percentage of the Dow Jones Industrial Average every year from 1900 through 2022, encapsulating more than 120 years of market history.
The pattern, so far, seems to be playing out this year. The median decline from the stock market’s typical July high to the end of October is about 8%. In 2023, the Dow Jones Industrial has declined by about 8% since its late July hugh, lining up with the seasonal pattern.
“During the last week of October, the stock market transitions from the most prolonged period of seasonal weakness to the most bullish 2 month window,” Ned Davis Research said in a recent note.
For a year-end rally to trigger, Ned David Research said it would like to see more pessimism among investors and further oversold readings in the stock market. However, the year-end rally may be halted if bond yields continue higher and market breadth remains poor.
Where do you think markets go from here? Are we going to see new all time highs or are we on the verge of dropping into a bear market?
🎃 Halloween candy is going to be pricier this year as cocoa and sugar prices reach new highs. Are you still splurging or cutting back?
Cocoa, a vital ingredient for chocolate, is more expensive than it has been in decades, as hotter and drier weather patterns stunt the cacao bean crop’s growth. Cocoa futures surged to $3786 per metric ton on Monday, the highest since 1979.
The heat and dryness threatening major cocoa-growing regions are partially a product of El Niño, a naturally occurring weather phenomenon that is estimated to last through the first half of 2024. This is the second season in a row that there has been a cocoa deficit.
To make things worse, the cost of sugar is also at an 11-year high. Sugar, as we all know, is a key ingredient in candy. The price of raw sugar increased due to extreme weather on the sugar cane crops, particularly in India, where a third of the country’s sugar comes from. Sugar production was trimmed by 3% this year, causing an increase in price for products made with sugar, like candy.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the price of Halloween candy has risen by 7.5% compared to last year. In terms of what you spend, the National Retail foundation estimates the average person will spend $32 on Halloween candy this year, which is up $2.50 compared to last year’s average. In total Halloween candy spending is expected to reach $3.6B in 2023, which is still higher than $3.1B that was spent in candy in 2022.
🤖 The time of the Humanoid Robot has arrived. Thanks to Amazon.
Amazon is testing two new technologies to increase automation in its warehouses including a trial of a humanoid robot.
The humanoid robot, called Digit, is bipedal and can squat, bend and grasp items using clasps that imitate hands. It’s built by Agility Robotics and will initially be used to help employees consolidate totes that have been emptied of items. Amazon invested in Agility Robotics last year.
In addition to Digit, Amazon is testing a technology called Sequoia, which will identify and sort inventory into containers for employees, who will then pick the items customers have ordered . The system is in use at an Amazon warehouse in Houston, the company said in a statement.
Amazon, which has emphasized quick delivery to fend off challenges from ecommerce rivals, said the Sequoia system reduces the time it takes a warehouse to process an order by as much as 25%.
🛬 Did you know only 5 countries make up for 50% of all international visitors that come to the US? And India is among the top 3.
That’s right. There are 9.89M visitors from the United Kingdom, Germany, India, France and Brazil that are expected to visit the US in 2023. Out of that, the highest number of visitors are expected to come from the United Kingdom, as shown in the chart below.
But, what is quite unusual and curious is that India is among the top 3 countries with the highest number of visitors to the US.
Nearly 60% of Indian travelers came to the US for vacation, business or a conference in the first 6 months of 2023, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office. On average, Indian travelers spent $3500 per trip in the US. The states they visited the most were California, New York and Texas.
In 2023, the US is expected to welcome 1.4M Indian travelers. This would make India the third largest market for the US for tourism, compared to 2019, when India was the eighth largest market for the US for tourism.
While the number of visitor visa approvals for Indians has outperformed 2019 levels, they remain over 400 days on average, said U.S. Travel Association CEO and President Geoff Freeman at Skift Global Forum. In New Delhi, for example, an Indian national would have to wait 542 days for a visa interview at the U.S. Embassy.
U.S. destination marketing organizations have been investing in driving tourism from India. New York Tourism + Conventions, San Francisco Travel and Los Angeles Tourism have expanded their marketing efforts in India this year.
🤑 Young Americans are setting lofty retirement goals and they are confident that they will reach them.
Over 33% of GenZs and millennials say that they would need more than a $1M saved up in order to retire comfortably, according to a September survey from Bankrate, which surveyed 2525 working adults in the US over the age of 18. Bankrate defines GenZs as Americans ages 18 to 26 and millennials as those 27 to 42.
What’s more important is that most workers are confident they will be able to save enough to retire comfortably. Around 62% of millennials and 58% of GenZers are optimistic about reaching their retirement savings goals.
That’s all for today. Have a great weekend everyone.
Amrita 👋🏽👋🏽
“Out of that, 62% of millennials and 58% of GenZers are optimistic about reaching their retirement savings goals.” What’s driving such optimism?
That Amazon robot, Digit, is clearly design to be super-cute and non-threatening with its "blinking" eyes. Oddly enough, AI and leaps in robots tech could actually....be a good thing. I can see this being big business soon as the population in many countries begins to shrink. As I wrote here: https://www.lianeon.org/p/we-dont-have-enough-people
"Remember also that growth is largely a function of improved labor output. Thus, as the labor force shrinks, labor productivity needs to rise much faster for growth rates to remain stable. A shrinking labor force makes growth all but impossible absent significant technological leaps."