The US sees 3 quarters of productivity growth up 3.2% YoY. Now, it needs to ensure strong employment, growing fixed invests & a stable supply side to spearhead with AI to unlock productivity gains.
Historically I’ve been a strong believer that technological disruption creates net new jobs. I’m taking the under on that this time.
I’m curious what kind of upskilling the average person could do in order to compete with AI 5 years out. I really don’t see anything. I would prefer to be wrong.
I also think integration into business processes will ultimately be much faster than the internet was. We have gotten way way better at software integration in the last 30 years.
Great piece. Yes, productivity matters but is notoriously difficult to measure. Off the top of my head, I can think of two things we can do to dramatically improve productivity.
1) Stop taxing production. Land Value Taxes can replace income and corporate income taxes.
Great read. Provides a good context why we are so focused on limiting China"s access to leading edge AI technology. If the AI revolution plays oot as we expect, US will continue dominate the world stage for the next few decades.
Great article Amrita. The big question is, how will China develop. A quick comparison. When I look at the automotive space established car makers develop a car somewhere between 5-7 years (a face lift in 2-3 years). China develops a new car in 2 years (with a lot of "devil" in the detail stuff still not fixed, which makes a car "good/better" in the long run).
This was an enlightening read. I genuinely appreciate the efforts of the writers who things together to make an amazing article such as this. I also came across this article but more on the bearish side.
If AI starts writing NYT bestsellers and hit songs, we are lost. Elevator music and ad copy, fine, but if we can be fooled so thoroughly that we start weeping over AI generated novels and love songs, we might as well turn in our human cards.
That was a fun read. My only criticism is that that emoji was clearly a cupcake and not a muffin.
I usually don't repeat "Never bet against America" but in the current macroeconomic environment, which one country is a big winner? The US, by far.
Historically I’ve been a strong believer that technological disruption creates net new jobs. I’m taking the under on that this time.
I’m curious what kind of upskilling the average person could do in order to compete with AI 5 years out. I really don’t see anything. I would prefer to be wrong.
I also think integration into business processes will ultimately be much faster than the internet was. We have gotten way way better at software integration in the last 30 years.
Great piece. Yes, productivity matters but is notoriously difficult to measure. Off the top of my head, I can think of two things we can do to dramatically improve productivity.
1) Stop taxing production. Land Value Taxes can replace income and corporate income taxes.
2) Ease zoning regulations
Great read. Provides a good context why we are so focused on limiting China"s access to leading edge AI technology. If the AI revolution plays oot as we expect, US will continue dominate the world stage for the next few decades.
Interesting analysis, thanks!
Great article Amrita. The big question is, how will China develop. A quick comparison. When I look at the automotive space established car makers develop a car somewhere between 5-7 years (a face lift in 2-3 years). China develops a new car in 2 years (with a lot of "devil" in the detail stuff still not fixed, which makes a car "good/better" in the long run).
Absolutely, we are with you!
great read!
This was an enlightening read. I genuinely appreciate the efforts of the writers who things together to make an amazing article such as this. I also came across this article but more on the bearish side.
https://hengecat.substack.com/p/monthly-market-rollup-march-to-april
What do you think?
Do you think this will help Biden's presidential reelection prospects? I would seem so.
If AI starts writing NYT bestsellers and hit songs, we are lost. Elevator music and ad copy, fine, but if we can be fooled so thoroughly that we start weeping over AI generated novels and love songs, we might as well turn in our human cards.
Another issue is what is economic output and hence productivity
USA economy in terms of dollar measures is mostly virtual
Heating cooling shelter quality food and quality education are crazy expensive
Drivel like facebook Twitter lesser so Google Tesla
Finance industry credit cards
If quality of life is going down for most people as their bodies are filled with microplastics
Uggh
Property taxes property insurance
Government at all level almost 50 percent of economy
Exponential rise in housing prices
Exponential rise in debts
Exponential rise in cost of education
Exponential rise in stocks
This usually ends badly historically speaking
lol
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