This is really good content! Thanks for such helpful information. You explain these concepts in a way that is really easy for me to understand. Much appreciated!
Having recently read Michael Hudson book Super Imperialism it’s hard to be optimistic for USA. We are probably going to either have a civil war or Washington DC will be nuked. Government at all levels are 45 percent of USA economy now
My late father said “when I was a boy people were self reliant nowadays everyone has their hand in your pocket”. The culture of the country has changed. It’s become a rentier society dominated by FIRE sector which is great for Warren Buffet as is an insurance guy
Middle class is disappearing etc me have grifters in the corporate suites and in the government offices
Trillions are wasted every year by psychopaths in politics
Of course will keep importing people to extract from them for a generation or two.
Karl Polanyi the great socialist was correct the USA no longer has free land so those days are gone
It needs to invest in its citizens not just import people
Is it possible that the tens of trillions of dollars that have been extracted from the private sector and spent on vote buying policies like warfare, welfare, climate change and student debt have made us so poor a single income can no longer sustain a family?
Great read, Amrita! I can't wait for part 2! You've raised some excellent points about the challenges facing the US economy. Especially concerning are the unprecedented conditions of interest expense eclipsing all other costs for the US Government, as well as the rapidly declining birth rate that many speculate will lead to a decrease in world population soon (which could potentially shrink GDP as well as the market for our cutting edge innovations). It's difficult to predict exactly what a declining global population might do to the world's economies since our current models are all constructed under the assumption that populations will always be increasing. I'm sure I'm not alone in wondering how the USA will manage to continue paying this interest if GDP shrinks or global markets contract. It feels like a stable future hinges on US dominance with AI technology in the coming years.
Really looking forward to reading your vision for how this plays out, now that you've set the stage so well.
We need to clean out the current administration on all levels as they they have been actively hollowing out our country for the last 3+ years - we might recover (?)
The Bretton Woods Agreement put the dollar in the position of being the world’s leading reserve currency. At US insistence, in preference to the scheme advanced by JM Keynes. And when it went off the gold standard the US went on a spending spree.
Warren should have said something like 'Don't bet against the country that prints the money that is universally accepted', until it's not accepted.
Its nice to know that just two workers can add a million dollars to the product of S and P 500 companies. There are a few smart bankers in that league.
What does AI have to say about the way that million dollars and the ownership of assets get to be concentrated in ever fewer hands? What does it say about the future of consumption when half the population is saddled with debt and an unsustainable minimum wage.
What does AI have to say about the consequences of single purpose zoning as it affects the distances people have to travel and the consequent dependence on the automobile and cheap sources of fuel ? What does it have to say about their prospects of buying an electric car?
What does AI have to say about providing a house that within reach for the minimum wage earner. Will he also be able to own a car, to partner up and raise children?
What does AI have to say about why teachers can no longer manage children in schools? And the course of national productivity going forward?
What does AI have to say about how to manage people who conduct gain of function experiments and devise vaccines to counter the disease that results, then mandate the use of said vaccine even though it results in enhanced disease uptake and other diabolical negatives?
Whatever AI has to say about these problems, will it be able to convince people and the US as a nation, to share the proceeds of production more equitably?
There is one country that has a more generous attitude to others and a manifest determination to share and it is vilified by the US. Appears to me that ordinary intelligence can suffice when people have a determination to work for the common good.
You have to ask yourself what the US national interest actually is. Is it any more than making spectacularly destructive armaments and putting them in the hands of its frequently irresponsible, friends abroad? Can the leopard change his spots? Jeremiah 13:23 New International Version (NIV)
Can an Ethiopian change his skin or a leopard its spots? Neither can you do good who are accustomed to doing evil.
Great work as always. I'm leary to be that optimistic about a productivity boom though. They're pumping AI while getting ROI and into the black. Big time. With so many disenfranchised millenials and Gen Z and wages not really going up yet average household spends too much it's going to leave people hungry but they won't be able to really profit from these tools as much as initially thought. I hope you are correct and millenials can start buying houses soon. What I hope to see is a return to 580 scored mortgages. Sub prime looks different than it did before covid and I think if they are saddled with an ARM it may ease the burden a bit before commercial real estate takes a dive but if I owned commercial real estate I'd hold it as it's a wave that needs to be rode. I really do hope you're right. The small cap is troublesome. It could be little fires everywhere type of situation.
Great stuff Amrita …. the issues dragging the country down as expressed by David Lentz above and others need to be addressed and why will we not trust our people including those in the government and the future generations to do the right things going forward to keep America Great
Dalio's work sounds very interesting. I am struck by the gap between the US's current valuation in terms of innovation vs. education. Where is this innovation coming from if the education is so broken? Industry itself must act as its own sort of university system, so it seems. The escalation of disparities is a good place to conclude to launch us into the next edition.
We should probably should factor in all the money laundering in Ukraine…..draining the US. The corruption is rampant. This needs to be factored in to any scenario.
This is really good content! Thanks for such helpful information. You explain these concepts in a way that is really easy for me to understand. Much appreciated!
Having recently read Michael Hudson book Super Imperialism it’s hard to be optimistic for USA. We are probably going to either have a civil war or Washington DC will be nuked. Government at all levels are 45 percent of USA economy now
My late father said “when I was a boy people were self reliant nowadays everyone has their hand in your pocket”. The culture of the country has changed. It’s become a rentier society dominated by FIRE sector which is great for Warren Buffet as is an insurance guy
Middle class is disappearing etc me have grifters in the corporate suites and in the government offices
Trillions are wasted every year by psychopaths in politics
Of course will keep importing people to extract from them for a generation or two.
Karl Polanyi the great socialist was correct the USA no longer has free land so those days are gone
It needs to invest in its citizens not just import people
That means universal healthcare and education
All USA will have is universal homelessness
lol
Is it possible that the tens of trillions of dollars that have been extracted from the private sector and spent on vote buying policies like warfare, welfare, climate change and student debt have made us so poor a single income can no longer sustain a family?
Great read, Amrita! I can't wait for part 2! You've raised some excellent points about the challenges facing the US economy. Especially concerning are the unprecedented conditions of interest expense eclipsing all other costs for the US Government, as well as the rapidly declining birth rate that many speculate will lead to a decrease in world population soon (which could potentially shrink GDP as well as the market for our cutting edge innovations). It's difficult to predict exactly what a declining global population might do to the world's economies since our current models are all constructed under the assumption that populations will always be increasing. I'm sure I'm not alone in wondering how the USA will manage to continue paying this interest if GDP shrinks or global markets contract. It feels like a stable future hinges on US dominance with AI technology in the coming years.
Really looking forward to reading your vision for how this plays out, now that you've set the stage so well.
Masterfully done. 'Nuff said.
Great article Amrita.
We need to clean out the current administration on all levels as they they have been actively hollowing out our country for the last 3+ years - we might recover (?)
What a great read, and a great cliffhanger for Part 2.
Great job! I gotta take my time to dig into it.
Anyway, I have another question.
Would you bet on China instead?
https://substack.com/profile/85764394-gianni-berardi/note/c-51418325
A fine exposition. A tour de force. And timely.
The Bretton Woods Agreement put the dollar in the position of being the world’s leading reserve currency. At US insistence, in preference to the scheme advanced by JM Keynes. And when it went off the gold standard the US went on a spending spree.
Warren should have said something like 'Don't bet against the country that prints the money that is universally accepted', until it's not accepted.
Its nice to know that just two workers can add a million dollars to the product of S and P 500 companies. There are a few smart bankers in that league.
What does AI have to say about the way that million dollars and the ownership of assets get to be concentrated in ever fewer hands? What does it say about the future of consumption when half the population is saddled with debt and an unsustainable minimum wage.
What does AI have to say about the consequences of single purpose zoning as it affects the distances people have to travel and the consequent dependence on the automobile and cheap sources of fuel ? What does it have to say about their prospects of buying an electric car?
What does AI have to say about providing a house that within reach for the minimum wage earner. Will he also be able to own a car, to partner up and raise children?
What does AI have to say about why teachers can no longer manage children in schools? And the course of national productivity going forward?
What does AI have to say about how to manage people who conduct gain of function experiments and devise vaccines to counter the disease that results, then mandate the use of said vaccine even though it results in enhanced disease uptake and other diabolical negatives?
Whatever AI has to say about these problems, will it be able to convince people and the US as a nation, to share the proceeds of production more equitably?
There is one country that has a more generous attitude to others and a manifest determination to share and it is vilified by the US. Appears to me that ordinary intelligence can suffice when people have a determination to work for the common good.
You have to ask yourself what the US national interest actually is. Is it any more than making spectacularly destructive armaments and putting them in the hands of its frequently irresponsible, friends abroad? Can the leopard change his spots? Jeremiah 13:23 New International Version (NIV)
Can an Ethiopian change his skin or a leopard its spots? Neither can you do good who are accustomed to doing evil.
I'm looking forward to part 2.
Great work as always. I'm leary to be that optimistic about a productivity boom though. They're pumping AI while getting ROI and into the black. Big time. With so many disenfranchised millenials and Gen Z and wages not really going up yet average household spends too much it's going to leave people hungry but they won't be able to really profit from these tools as much as initially thought. I hope you are correct and millenials can start buying houses soon. What I hope to see is a return to 580 scored mortgages. Sub prime looks different than it did before covid and I think if they are saddled with an ARM it may ease the burden a bit before commercial real estate takes a dive but if I owned commercial real estate I'd hold it as it's a wave that needs to be rode. I really do hope you're right. The small cap is troublesome. It could be little fires everywhere type of situation.
Great stuff Amrita …. the issues dragging the country down as expressed by David Lentz above and others need to be addressed and why will we not trust our people including those in the government and the future generations to do the right things going forward to keep America Great
Dalio's work sounds very interesting. I am struck by the gap between the US's current valuation in terms of innovation vs. education. Where is this innovation coming from if the education is so broken? Industry itself must act as its own sort of university system, so it seems. The escalation of disparities is a good place to conclude to launch us into the next edition.
Incredible post Amrita, particularly love all the use of graphics. Makes it such a nice read.
I agree with pretty much everything you say here. It's becoming a very concentrated market which is never entirely healthy.
Sheer, undiluted brilliance. A must read for anyone wanting to understand the 'whys' AND the 'hows.'
Looking forward to Part the Second..
One of your best writings I have seen so far. Cannot wait for part 2!
We should probably should factor in all the money laundering in Ukraine…..draining the US. The corruption is rampant. This needs to be factored in to any scenario.