Nvidia has always been at the right place at the right time leading all the major innovation cycles over the past 2 decades. It is now getting ready to power the next industrial revolution, led by AI.
Thankfully I don't invest, so I have no urgency about any of it, though I can imagine that friends will give you a 2 am call in a panic-mode once in a while? That crossed my mind, if I were to invest about things I know so little about!
We have to fix that! You've built a great audience here, but your insights and wisdom is profound and deserves an even bigger audience. I say that, not in flatterly, either. Truth.
Thanks for sharing the links. I had pitched to both, but unfortunately they don't seem to take any ideas into consideration unless you have a title at a reputable organization or a massive social following. So, for now, I am doing my best work on Substack and Seeking Alpha, while plotting my plans on how to build a following outside. There are content creators in the finance/tech space that I follow who have been able to do that, so I am studying them to build my next pillar. Thank you so much for this. I am truly grateful to have readers/supporters like you.
I have no doubt you will succeed. By the yard, life is hard; by the inch, it's a cinch. One step at a time. You're in it for the long-haul, so I know you star will continue to rise. Happy to be in your star dust trail!
I own NVidia through QQQ. Can't complain about the recent returns. The company is killing it.
But let me be the jerk here and take a contrarian stance :)
The recent price gains are concerning. I'm not saying the stock will fall. It's that how much can you still make on it? Is a 100% return possible? I wouldn't initiate a position now, like you.
Precisely. I think the pace of beating their guidance will slow, especially with harder comps starting from next Q. Having said that, with no capex spending slowdown in sight, I think this is one of those instances where you let your winners keep running.
Also, Apple has been testing latency levels in model inference using flash memory (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.11514) If Apple can see production-level success, it may compete with Nvidia's GPUs for model inference.
Agree. I would also recommend TechFund's substack, I remember reading and making sense of Nvidia's training and inference markets a while back from his posts, especially as I am not a super technical person either.
Sure Nick. There are some papers I have from my list. Right now, this is what I can share...I definitely have some more material somewhere stacked and Ill send them over once I find it:
I agree with Michael Newberry. I’m a financial novice and I could so easily read and understand your writing. Thank you, you’ve obviously done a excellent amount of research!
Thanks Charlotte. I can't sit calm myself until I understand what these "complicated" companies actually do in simple terms and how it affects the world, being a financial and technological novice not too long ago myself. Glad my writing is being able to untangle these complex concepts into accessible content.
Business strategy at Nvidia is unique. As Jensen Huang calls it, "choosing", identifying where exactly they want to be in the value chain. For example, how they tuned themselves into their customers' data centers to become an almost irreplaceable component.
Fully agree with you John. I think their "full-stack platform" allows them to control every piece of its infrastructure, and thus deliver faster innovation to their customers at lower TCO. Truly gamechanging, though I will be curious how it competes in the long-run in the inference market when hyperscalers catch up with their own custom made chips.
Are you invested in the stock currently? In terms of expectation, they have some high expectations for this year, which I think should be achievable especially given the trend in capex spending at the moment. I guess this is one of those instances where you let your winners keep running and don't meddle around too much.
Wow, I enjoyed reading that. For layperson without any financial or technical background. You write so clearly and on point.
Thanks Michael, that means a lot. 🙏🏼🙏🏼
Thankfully I don't invest, so I have no urgency about any of it, though I can imagine that friends will give you a 2 am call in a panic-mode once in a while? That crossed my mind, if I were to invest about things I know so little about!
Thanks Michael!
Great advice, as always. CNBC or Bloomberg TV would be lucky to have you as a show host.
Thanks Paul for your kindest words, would love such an opportunity, though I am not very well connected.
We have to fix that! You've built a great audience here, but your insights and wisdom is profound and deserves an even bigger audience. I say that, not in flatterly, either. Truth.
Thanks, Paul!
I would love to see you take the next step.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/05/join-the-conversation.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/company/press-contacts/#:~:text=If%20you%20have%20a%20tip,bottom%20of%20all%20Bloomberg%20stories.
Thanks for sharing the links. I had pitched to both, but unfortunately they don't seem to take any ideas into consideration unless you have a title at a reputable organization or a massive social following. So, for now, I am doing my best work on Substack and Seeking Alpha, while plotting my plans on how to build a following outside. There are content creators in the finance/tech space that I follow who have been able to do that, so I am studying them to build my next pillar. Thank you so much for this. I am truly grateful to have readers/supporters like you.
I have no doubt you will succeed. By the yard, life is hard; by the inch, it's a cinch. One step at a time. You're in it for the long-haul, so I know you star will continue to rise. Happy to be in your star dust trail!
Pitch a story.
I own NVidia through QQQ. Can't complain about the recent returns. The company is killing it.
But let me be the jerk here and take a contrarian stance :)
The recent price gains are concerning. I'm not saying the stock will fall. It's that how much can you still make on it? Is a 100% return possible? I wouldn't initiate a position now, like you.
Exactly, the risk-reward is no longer attractive in my opinion, unless you are a master trader, which I (we) are not.
Yea, for retail, etfs would be a nice way to gain exposure and outsource beta risk via the etf. How long have you been holding the Q's for?
Since 2022. Started buying a few months before the final low in October.
I shared this in my firms telegram chat 🤙
Thanks Andrew.
Hey! Thanks Andrew
Of course have a good and prosperous week !
You too!
tough to bet against an innovative company when their sales and net income are growing faster than their stock price!
Precisely. I think the pace of beating their guidance will slow, especially with harder comps starting from next Q. Having said that, with no capex spending slowdown in sight, I think this is one of those instances where you let your winners keep running.
Great thoughts!
Righto!
I want to know more about the Model Inference development pathway. Any reading material you can share out?
Here are some more:
https://www.semianalysis.com/p/inference-race-to-the-bottom-make
https://www.interconnects.ai/p/llms-beyond-attention (caution: too-nerdy)
Also, Apple has been testing latency levels in model inference using flash memory (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.11514) If Apple can see production-level success, it may compete with Nvidia's GPUs for model inference.
Thanks. Can’t wait to dive in. Yes, Semianalysis is a little intense. Anything but “semianalysis.”
Agree. I would also recommend TechFund's substack, I remember reading and making sense of Nvidia's training and inference markets a while back from his posts, especially as I am not a super technical person either.
Sure Nick. There are some papers I have from my list. Right now, this is what I can share...I definitely have some more material somewhere stacked and Ill send them over once I find it:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.08804, https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.09040, https://web.eecs.umich.edu/~mosharaf/Readings/GRNN.pdf
Solid write up, love the fact that more and more hardware companies are getting the recognition they deserve !
I agree. There is so much more that meets the eye especially in Semis. NVDA is just scratching the surface.
Thank you. 🙏🏼🙏🏼
I agree with Michael Newberry. I’m a financial novice and I could so easily read and understand your writing. Thank you, you’ve obviously done a excellent amount of research!
Thanks Charlotte. I can't sit calm myself until I understand what these "complicated" companies actually do in simple terms and how it affects the world, being a financial and technological novice not too long ago myself. Glad my writing is being able to untangle these complex concepts into accessible content.
Business strategy at Nvidia is unique. As Jensen Huang calls it, "choosing", identifying where exactly they want to be in the value chain. For example, how they tuned themselves into their customers' data centers to become an almost irreplaceable component.
Fully agree with you John. I think their "full-stack platform" allows them to control every piece of its infrastructure, and thus deliver faster innovation to their customers at lower TCO. Truly gamechanging, though I will be curious how it competes in the long-run in the inference market when hyperscalers catch up with their own custom made chips.
Impressive to watch this stock. I hope the keep delivering what they promise :-)
Are you invested in the stock currently? In terms of expectation, they have some high expectations for this year, which I think should be achievable especially given the trend in capex spending at the moment. I guess this is one of those instances where you let your winners keep running and don't meddle around too much.
No I’m not. I just hope that everybody stays happy with the stock, since I can relate how it feels. Crossing fingers! 🙂
Likewise. Probably one of those stocks which exemplifies "investing-is-an-art" theory. We just kept getting out early.