52 Comments
Jan 25Liked by Amrita Roy, Uttam Dey

I worked at Google from 2015-2023 and noticed a calamitous change in culture over that period of time. Employees can no longer speak freely (most importantly, in confronting leadership, as epitomized at once-famous TGIF meetings). This culture of accountability and radical anti-hierarchy was a check on the inevitable decline into BS-heavy corporate comms. Sundar killed this emblem of managerial accountability in late 2019. What's left is a risk-averse, feudal empire spanning hundreds (low thousands?) of directors and VPs fearful of losing their multi-million-dollar comp and equity awards for capably and dutifully managing their sprawling serfdoms. These serfdoms so often come into conflict with one another (despite having to coordinate on new product launches) that innovative, disruptive work often never ships. And even if you get past that coordination problem, if it could do *anything* to put the core search ad business at risk, it's seen as not worth it for the company. So to answer your question, I think it's part classic innovators dillemma, and part managerial paralysis.

Expand full comment
author

Oh! you hit a nerve when you mentioned TGIF meetings. I worked in a few Bay Area companies - Fitbit being the last one I worked at until right before the pandemic started. I feel fortunate to have worked in what was arguably the most enjoyable decade to work in Bay Area tech. Happy Hours, Lunches, and all those Escape Room-style Bay Area perks. I closely followed those TGIF meetings and was bummed when they decided to shut them down.

Do you find any other exciting areas of technology or any other sector that could possibly as worker-friendly as those times? (I'm out of the job scene for a while)

Expand full comment
author

Thanks David for sharing your experience at Google. Are you based out of the Bay Area? Where did you move to after Google?

Expand full comment

I’m in Marin now--I was impacted by the 2023 layoffs and am taking consulting/commercial counsel gigs for now

Expand full comment
author

All the best, David! Thanks for sharing your experiences. Marin is a nice place, better than SF. The little bit I know about it was when we used to take the ferry to go to Sausalito, Tuburon, Larkspur

Expand full comment

My view is that the “big efficiencies from AI” are largely a mirage. This is not unique to Google. All the big companies need to tread a fine line between feeding investors what they want to hear (AI hype about productivity force multipliers), yet also face the reality that AI is severely lagging in delivering those productivity gains except in extremely menial jobs (largely NOT in big tech: copywriters, low level graphic design), is extremely expensive to train models, differentiate custom models (because proprietary data is harder to find and privacy regulations do exist), not to mention the extremely high hardware costs and the lagging of primary research innovation in AI.

In short, we’re in the buzzword trap, big tech needs to say “me too, look at me I’m leading the way” but there’s no easy path to unique differentiation, no proven business model, and therefore no quick path to revenue. Metaverse 2.0

Also, much of the primary research was done by Google scientists with the psychological safety of the zirp years that they wouldn’t be laid off. Short term thinking leads employees to busy work and metrics hacking, not deep R&D innovation.

Expand full comment
author

Thank you for your commentary! It does appear that AI is still very nascent and does not necessitate the kind of attention its gets today. But I still think chatbots are further ahead in proving their capabilities vs Mark's Metaverse. Most Big Tech like Google are incredibly focused on accumulating reputation as they grow so they focus on managing investors, employees and attempting to innovate responsibly.

But these same companies are caught in the buzzword trap like you pointed out now and I largely feel like thats happened because high interest rates have made it costly to just spend money continuously. Even big folks like Google have to do frugal growth hacking like we're seeing now.

You quite spot on too with the sheer volume of dollars required to deploy AI today but I'm curious as to your views on AI lagging in delivering productivity gains?

Expand full comment

This is the evolution of Google I have noticed over the years. Early in the 2000s and before it was a great search engine which you could use as somewhat of a library. You could do deep searches. Now when I Google a subject all I get is one page and all the links are trying to sell me some thing. Often you are funneled to Reddit or Quora for answers or research to your questions. That has been my personal experience and I cannot vouch for everybody else.

Expand full comment
author

nice observation, Charlotte! I think the evolution of search is more like a typical top-down solution meets bottom-up problems. At some point Google had to include more search results because information found on the web was being in other micro-blogging sites such as Twitter, Reddit, Quora. (Believe it or not, I sometimes do find very useful information about what my generation of users and younger users are thinking, writing and doing online).

At the same time these sites like Reddit also needed to expand so they found ways to list on Google's search results via Search Engine Optimization (SEO) frameworks. The issue that most search engines now face is that everybody has learnt how to (sort-of) hack the system But AI models have proven to do it much faster.

Expand full comment

Interesting 🤔 Thank you!

It seems the opposite has happened. Instead of more choices and information we receive less with lesser quality results compared to the early days and 2000’s. It’s no longer fun to research. *Sigh*

I do love Brave, it feels like old Google.

Expand full comment
author

Couldn't agree more with you.

Expand full comment
Jan 26Liked by Amrita Roy, Uttam Dey

This chimes with my experience but if not Google then where do you go to search? And that's the problem...for Search there are no viable competitors as far as I can see.

Expand full comment
author

Agree with Charlotte. Though Reddit is a good option too, although, I often find the site to be overwhelming, but that's just my personal view.

Expand full comment

Yes I find Reddit and Quora both overwhelming. And nothing like the old googles from the 2000s and before where you could easily find well curated articles on the topic you were researching. Brave is definitely much more like the old Google. But that will probably be tightened up as well over time.

Expand full comment
author

Good question, Allan! I heavily used Google search for the longest time but I have been reflecting on your question -- I have found myself doing a combination of looking at Google and if i'm not happy with the first 5-6 search results, I look at Reddit.

Here's an example: I stay in Vancouver and I want to search for grocery stores that sell Korean groceries. I go to Google or Google Maps but I find the information not human-or-relevant enough for me so I go to local Reddit threads where I sometimes find that they just dont talk about their favorite Korean grocery stores, users also will give details about which brand of noodle packets or sauces to pick up in those stores. Also I can ask some more specific questions and someone will help me out.

Does this answer you question? How do you search nowadays?

Expand full comment

Thanks for your reply Uttam. I'm intrigued by the creative ways you use Reddit and I'll give that approach a try.

Expand full comment
author

I was reflecting further on how i search using a combination of Google and Reddit. Here's what I actually do (maybe it helps you)...

Go to Google and type your search key. If you aren't satisfied with your results go back to the search key and add the word "Reddit" at the end of your search key and the results Google throws up will be only from Reddit threads.

Its weird but it works for me that way. But i think many people have started doing that and Google's trying to figure out how to stop that:-

https://www.androidpolice.com/google-search-perspectives-reddit-blackout/

Expand full comment
author

Most welcome, Allan. Glad I can share my experience.

Expand full comment

Brave is similar to old Google

Expand full comment
Jan 26Liked by Amrita Roy, Uttam Dey

Thanks Charlotte - I'll summon up my courage and try being Brave!

Expand full comment

👍😁

Expand full comment
Jan 26Liked by Amrita Roy, Uttam Dey

Google likely need a new CEO...a bolder leader who is not afraid of making radical changes to make the company leaner and more focused on their business priorities. I continue to think that their employee base is too large as compared to their peers for comparable businesses.

I do concur with Pichai's concerns about AI and its risks. Apple is taking is slow too in the AI space. Google is focused on "infusing" AI into their money maker products....that is the better approach imo, than Microsoft adding a copilot to all their products (this could provide a temp revenue boost but in a year or so MSFT will have to give it away for free). Nice write up. Very insightful. Cheers

Expand full comment
author

Thanks Beachman, glad you enjoyed the writeup. Fully agree with you on the possible need for a new CEO, as for the size of the company, Google probably hired too fast, unfortunately the employee morale at the company is quite sour with the management's latest plans to cut costs, and that too, might have an impact on the pace of innovation moving forward.

Expand full comment
author

Thanks for comment, Beachman!

Expand full comment
Jan 26Liked by Amrita Roy, Uttam Dey

One more point that just came to mind. GOOG might be playing it low key due to ongoing anti-trust litigation. Might be a legal/corporate strategy to not make too many media waves until the case is settled.

Expand full comment
author

That's a very valid point, thanks for pointing it out.

Expand full comment
Jan 26Liked by Amrita Roy, Uttam Dey

From a design perspective Google has been a hot mess for some time, particularly Search and Gmail. Not sure what their product teams are doing but they need to get back to core usability. Adding AI on top of the current state is not a recipe for a good time if you’re a user.

Expand full comment
author
Jan 26·edited Jan 26Author

Thanks for your perspective, Kev. I think as someone had pointed out earlier, this looks like the case of "classic innovators dilemma, and part managerial paralysis."

If you don't mind me asking... how has Gmail and Search dropped the ball in core usability for you, IYO?

(you sound like you have some product management experience😉)

Expand full comment

I might have done a little 😉 I think the decline in the quality of Google search is well documented. I really enjoy the simplicity of new services like Perplexity that feel clean but thorough even in the constraints of mobile.

Gmail’s IA is really bad - have you ever tried adjusting your settings? - and I find it super cluttered. But I’m also a fan of less is more so there’s likely some bias in my opinion.

Expand full comment
author

I haven't tried Perplexity's mobile app. Will test it out soon.

But I agree to your point on Gmail's UI (i'm also a fan of minimalist UI design). They tried to add more features which i was not a fan of and then they tried to offer customized options like Comfort or Compact Density settings to stay true to their Material Design concept. But its way too cluttered.

Expand full comment

Yeah, feature bloat seems to be an issue in a lot of established services at the moment. Will be interested to hear what you think of Perplexity!

Expand full comment

I remember being excited for Bard but it took so long that when it did launch I barely used it as I had become accustomed to other AI tools already.

Expand full comment
author

Same here. I have used Google for so long I was really excited for Bard. But till date they haven't released in Canada. Moreover, for other browsers Chatbots are already integrated or like ChatGPT or others like InflectionAI or CohereAI I can experiment with their chatbots directly in the browser like a SaaS tool but Google would still require me to run through hoops to get access to SGE.

What are the other tools you use, David?

Expand full comment

For images I use Bing Create, but have dabbled with Leonardo, but just found consistently better results with Bing.

Otherwise I use ChatGPT or Bing's version since I often have the browser open, making it easier to quickly whip something up.

Expand full comment
author

Thanks for sharing your experience. I havent used Bing Create but ill try that. Been using Midjourney a lot.

Expand full comment

Great overview of all of this. I've often worried what would happen if Google went to the dark side. I hope we're not on the verge of finding out. Keep up the great work!

Expand full comment
author

Thanks for the kind words Ed!

Expand full comment

My pleasure Uttam. Google and Amazon know so much about us that it is a little concerning what would happen if they shared information in a nefarious way. I have tried to to not reveal too much but it is like a Salmon swimming upstream.

Expand full comment
author

I will be stealing this line for one of my future posts - "...like a Salmon swimming upstream"

Expand full comment

Cool! I'd appreciate attribution when you do to help people find out about my newsletter. I look forward to reading more of your work.

Expand full comment
author

Absolutely.

Expand full comment
Jan 30Liked by Amrita Roy, Uttam Dey

Hey Uttam & Amrita

Thanks for your detailed write up highlighting some of the challenges faced by Google today. I'm always interested to read about Google to know what's going on with this company, be it litigations or anything else. To answer your question: Although I do not hold any google shares myself but I'm always bullish about this conglomerate. You will find Google in almost every greatest investor's portfolio today and there is a reason for that. It has the highest market share of digital ad revenues today, far outpacing Meta or Microsoft. There is a saying that goes like: "Google knows more about you than you know about yourself". The user information that it collects and mines using machine learning and AI is in high demand among its advertisers because of its accuracy and high hit rate. It influences almost every aspect of our lives today whether we are using its search engine, gmail or any other platforms or app. Despite all the challenges from competitors, regulators imposing restrictions, slapping the company with heavy fines for violating antitrust and privacy laws, Google continues to produce an ever increasing surplus cash which gives the company immense power to remain innovative by continuing to gobble up competitors for its growth. This is free market economy and the nature of capitalism. With immense capital, comes immense power, to influence, devour and control. It with every conglomerate if you look at their pattern and acquisition history. No doubt they have been involved in unethical practices of unlawfully stealing and exploiting users data to benefit themselves but that's with most companies on Wall Street. They will go to any extent to ill advice, mislead, mis sell and profit. Amazon, Meta, they all use AI to influence and engage in such malpractices. Look around and you'll find plenty. The raw data that Google collects doesn't cost them anything, mind you. The users willingly engage with its platforms, apps and provide this information about themselves. No doubt Google apps have become a necessity that we can't live without today which is an edge. The gmail is way better than the hotmail, I feel, in terms of free space, and security. Their machine learning and AI capabilities are unmatched which serves as a moat and the reason why it is a monopoly which threatens regulators. They remain secretive with their covert operations because they have to, to keep the regulators and competitors away. This is the reason they have developed a culture which is more controlling at the top which is not very lenient or friendly at the bottom. This is to control and protect their intellectual property which is hard to replace and has immense value. Although this is not an investment advice to invest in Google but I think, in my humble opinion, Google is a very unique company which has a very long run way ahead. It will continue to compound and being a trillion dollar company today no doubt, it will become the most valuable company in near future despite all the challenges. It has no serious threat to its market share from a real competitor yet. Thanks!

Expand full comment
author

Thanks for posting your views, Mehmood. When we wrote this article last week, it was primarily based on stitching together insight from a few places that were pointing to possible slowdown in Google's revenue. Google's earnings report this week alluded to the insight that we published earlier. From an investor's POV, I have no doubt the company will be able to right its ship. There are a few challenges the company faces on many fronts including its ad business. Meta's earnings showed how they have already deployed AI to deliver marketers with significant productivity boosts and higher return on ad-spend. As an investor, I feel Google will get there after it is able to catch up to the scale of AI capabilities that Meta and Microsoft's products offer at the moment.

But you definitely have hit a lot of good points on bring more perspective to this post. Thanks again for being so elaborate with your thoughts.

Expand full comment

What you say is true, I have noticed it too. Especially since 2020. From that year on I realized that information censorship existed in apparently democratic countries. Of course, it is a medium that has been bought, bribed.

Now, if you do a committed search, the results it gives are all the same and are in the official line. I have to go to other alternative search engines to find what I want.

Expand full comment
author

What are the alternative search engines you use to get your answers?

Expand full comment

In 2020 I realized how YouTube began to censor if what you said was not the official version. Then Google did the same thing, the results, in most cases correspond with the official version of the topic you are trying to search for.

So other alternative search engines emerged and I saw how their results were different from Google, giving much more variety, exactly what happened before Covid. Among them are: DuckDuckGo, Starpage or gibiru

Expand full comment

Well done and brings up interesting information that is pertinent to investors in many companies. Nice job Amrita!

Expand full comment
author

Thank you!! Glad you found it interesting!

Expand full comment

It was scam from the radio and linked in and my friends.I want to be on the game.I was thinking you want to be without me.I wrote Jackie, that it was miscommunication and I stay

Expand full comment

What you get from Microsoft via Bing is what the government and big tech want you to see. It's a pathetic scam.

Expand full comment

It is is good for you, I stay.I didn’t understand, I was thinking y you want me to leave.I got messages on radio and LinkedIn.I will stay and fight then.I am not afraid

Expand full comment

UR AI about as much as I am, Tatchi bebbe

Expand full comment